Peter Frase

Update to the post below: I decided to see how well my model will predict miles traveled going forward. My model only includes data through January, as Nate Silver's did. But we have the data through February now, so we can see how well the model works there. We also have almost all the data needed to predict March--the only thing missing is the government's Housing Price Index. But that doesn't change too much month to month, so I made a prediction based on the February value:

           Predicted    Actual
February     215.37     215.77
March        245.31     ??

The March numbers should be out soon, so we'll see how my model performs.